NEWS RELEASE – December 12, 2017

In its 2018-2022 Floating Production Systems Outlook Report, Energy Maritime Associates (EMA), analyzed the activity in 2017, recent industry trends and conducted a sentiment survey to develop a forecast for all Floating Production Systems: FPSO, FLNG, FSRU, TLP, Spar, Semi, and FSO.

2017 Highlights:

  • Orders Resume. After almost two years without an order, 10 FPSOs have been awarded since Q4 2016.
  • Return of the mega-projects. ENI awarded the $5.4 billion EPCIC Coral South FLNG contract to Samsung, TechnipFMC, and JGC. Statoil sanctioned the $2.6 billion Johan Castberg FPSO. Sembcorp will construct the hull and SBM will provide the internal turret.
  • Record number of FSRUs ordered. Driven by yard discounts and new entrants, 11 FSRUs were awarded, including five on speculation.

(c)EMA 2018

What does the future hold?

  • Up to 173 Orders. Between 80-173 Floating Production Systems are expected over the next five years with a mid-case forecast of $94 billion to be spent on 124 units. The outlook has been adjusted slightly from last year, with a handful more FPSOs expected in the mid and high-case scenarios. FPSOs remain the largest segment with over 40% of orders and 2/3rds of capital expenditure. Close to $50 billion is expected to be spent on FPS projects in Brazil and Africa, driven by large, deepwater FPSOs as well as a few mid-size FLNG developments.
  • There are now 10 speculative FSRUs on order, in addition to one available unit. Additional FSRUs will begin coming off contract and it remains to be seen how easily they can find new employment.
  • Rise of the Redeployment – Three idle units were awarded new contracts this year (OSX-1 FPSO, Aoka Mizu FPSO, Maersk Inspirer MOPU). We expect this trend to continue, with redeployed units, particularly FPSOs, accounting for up to 25% of future awards. 46 Floating Production Systems are currently available – 21 FPSOs, 9 Production Semis, 6 FSOs, 5 MOPUs, 2 Spars, 1 FLNG, 1 FSRU, and 1 Production Barge. This is down five from last year due to redeployments and scrapping of many FPSOs including Armada Intrepid, Opportunity, and Marlim Sul. The number of idle units is expected to remain high, with another 39 units likely to come available within the next two years.

According to EMA’s Managing Director, David Boggs, “The floating production market experienced a gradual recovery in 2017, with total spending reaching levels last seen in 2014. After a two year pause, Petrobras resumed ordering production units and is expected to account for about a quarter of FPSO awards over at least the next five years. Confidence in deepwater developments returned as seen by sanction of projects including the Coral South FLNG, Johan Castberg FPSO, and SBM’s Fast4Ward speculative FPSO hull. Three idle units received new contracts, providing cost-effective solutions for challenged projects. At today’s oil price, there are an increasing number of viable offshore projects as a result of revised development plans, lower supply chain costs, and flexible commercial terms. The next few years provide a unique window of opportunity to sanction offshore developments and take advantage of record low drilling rates and adequate industry capacity.”

For further information or to speak with the author please contact EMA:

Yun Xu
Energy Maritime Associates Pte Ltd

Tel: +65.9177.1368 (Singapore)

Tel: +1.202.800.8390 (USA)

fps@energymaritimeassociates.com

2019-2023 Outlook Report: Table Of Contents

A. Introduction to Floating Production Systems (FPS)

  • Brief History of the Offshore Industry
  • FPS Life Cycle
  • FPS Unit Types
    • Floating Production, Storage and Offloading Units (FPSOs)
    • Tension Leg Platforms (TLPs
    • Single Point Anchor Reserve (Spars)
    • Floating Liquefied National Gas Units (FLNGs)
    • Floating Storage and Regassification Units (FSRUs)
    • Production Semisubmersibles (Semis)
    • Floating Storage and Offloading Vessels (FSOs)
    • Mobile Offshore Production Units (MOPUs)

B. Current Market Status

  • What Happened in 2018?
    • Project Awards
    • Project Deliveries
    • Decommissioned Units
  • What Does the Market Look Like as of Dec 2018?
    • On Order
    • Trend in Order Backlog
    • Available Floating Production Systems
    • Projects in Planning Stage
  • Top Ten Lists
    • Top FPS Operators (Planning Pipeline)
    • Top FPS Owners
    • Top FPS Operators (Installed Units)
    • Top FLNG Owners
    • Top FPSO Owners
    • Top FPSO Owners by Water Depth (Installed Units)
    • Top FSO Owners
    • Top SPAR Owners
    • Top Production Semi Owners
    • Top FSRU Owners
    • Top TLP Owners

C. Underlying Market Drivers

  • Global Oil and Gas Demand Drivers
  • Long Term Energy Demand
  • Global Oil and Gas Supplies
  • Global Oil Price
  • U.S. Onshore Production and Investment
  • Offshore Drilling

D. Market Forecasts

  • Summary of 2019-2023 Forecast
  • Forecast Scenarios
  • FPSO Forecast
  • FLNG Forecast
  • FSRU Forecast
  • FSO Forecast
  • Production SEMI Forecast
  • SPAR Forecast
  • TLP Forecast
  • Forecast Appendix

E. Floating Production Systems Industry Survey

F. Contractor Focus

  • Leasing Contractors
    • Bluewater
    • Bumi Armada
    • BW Offshore (BWO)
    • MISC
    • MODEC
    • SBM
    • Teekay
    • Yinson
  • FSRU/FLNG Companies (Excelerate, Exmar, Golar, Hoegh)
    • Excelerate
    • Exmar
    • Golar LNG
    • Hoegh LNG
  • EPC Contractors
    • Chinese Yards
      • Cosco Shipping Heavy Industry (CSHI)
      • China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC)
      • China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC)
      • Wison Offshore & Marine
    • Korean Yards
      • Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME)
      • Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI)
      • Samsung Heavy Industries (SHI)
    • Southeast Asia Yards
      • Keppel
      • Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering (MMHE)
      • Sembcorp Marine (Jurong and Sembawang)

2019-2023 Outlook Report: List of Illustrations

A. Introduction to Floating Production Systems (FPS)

  • Fig 1. FPS Units > 1,500m by Year Installed
  • Fig 2. Installed FPS Units by Maximum Water Depth Over Time
  • Fig 3. Regional Distribution of Installed Units 1991-2000
  • Fig 4. Regional Distribution of Installed Units 2001-2010
  • Fig 5. Regional Distribution of Installed Units 2011-2017
  • Fig 6. FPS Awards in Relation to Oil Price
  • Fig 7. FPS Life Cycle Schematic
  • Fig 8. FPSO Schematic
  • Fig 9. Mooring Systems Comparison
  • Fig 10. Production Semi Schematic
  • Fig 11. TLP Schematic
  • Fig 12. SPAR Schematic
  • Fig 13. FLNG Schematic
  • Fig 14. FSRU Schematic
  • Fig 15 FSO Schematic
  • Fig 16. MOPU Schematic

B. Current Market Status

  • Fig 17. Units Awarded in 2017 and 2018 by FPS Type
  • Fig 18. Units Awarded in 2017 and 2018 by Capex
  • Fig 19. Awarded Units 2015-2018 by Quarter
  • Fig 20. Awarded Units 2015-2018 by Capex
  • Fig 21. Distribution of Units Awarded in 2018 by Type
  • Fig 22. Details for Units Awarded in 2018
  • Fig 23. Units Awarded in 2018 by Capital Cost
  • Fig 24. Units Awarded in 2018 by Yard
  • Fig 25. Units Awarded in 2018 by Operator Category
  • Fig 26. Units Awarded by Lease/Own
  • Fig 27. FPSO Awards by Region
  • Fig 28. FSO Awards by Region
  • Fig 29. FSRU Awards by Region
  • Fig 30. SEMI Awards by Region
  • Fig 31. FLNG Awards by Region
  • Fig 32. FPS Awards by Capex
  • Fig 33. Units Delivered in 2018 by Region and Unit Type
  • Fig 34. Details of Units Delivered in 2018
  • Fig 35. Details of FSRUs Delivered in 2018
  • Fig 36. Units Decommissioned in 2018
  • Fig 37. Total Installed Units by Type
  • Fig 38. Global Distribution of Installed Units by Type
  • Fig 39. Installed Units by FPS Type and Region
  • Fig 40. Table of Production and Storage Floaters by Type and Region
  • Fig 41. FPS Units On Order by Type and Region
  • Fig 42. FPS Units On Order/Under Repair by Name and Type
  • Fig 43. Distribution of Units On Order by Destination
  • Fig 44. Distribution of Units On Order by Yard
  • Fig 45. FPS Order Book by Unit Type
  • Fig 46. FPS Order Book 1997-2018
  • Fig 47. Available FPS Units by Year of Lay-Up and Type
  • Fig 48. Available FPS Units by Year of Lay-Up, Type and Status
  • Fig 49. Possible Available FPSOs 2019-2020
  • Fig 50. Possible Available Non-FPSO Units 2019-2020
  • Fig 51. Projects in Planning Process
  • Fig 52. Projects in Planning Process by Region
  • Fig 53. Projects in Planning Process by Region and Water Depth
  • Fig 54. Projects in Bidding/Final Design Stage by Region and Water Depth
  • Fig 55. Projects in Planning Stage by Region and Water Depth
  • Fig 56. Projects in Appraisal Stage by Region and Water Depth
  • Fig 57. Top Operators by Projects in Planning Process
  • Fig 58. Top FPS Unit Owners
  • Fig 59. Top Operators by Units Leased or Owned
  • Fig 60. Top FPSO Owners
  • Fig 61. Top FPSO Owners by Water Depth
  • Fig 62. Top FSO Owners
  • Fig 63. Top Spar Owners
  • Fig 64. Top Semi Owners
  • Fig 65. Top FLNG Owners
  • Fig 66. Top FSRU Owners
  • Fig 67. Top TLP Owners

C. Underlying Market Drivers

  • Fig 68. Growth in Primary Energy Demand by Region
  • Fig 69. Global Energy Demand Growth
  • Fig 70. Global Energy Demand by Sector
  • Fig 71. Average Annual Oil Demand Growth
  • Fig 72. Global Oil Demand by Sector 2017-2023
  • Fig 73. Change in Global Energy Demand
  • Fig 74. Liquids Demand
  • Fig 75. Sectoral Oil Demand Growth
  • Fig 76. LNG Imports by Region
  • Fig 77. Shares in Long-Distance Gas Trade 2017 vs 2040
  • Fig 78. Growth in Primary Energy Demand by Type
  • Fig 79. Typologies Under Development
  • Fig 80. Cost Breakdown for Fixed-Bottom & Floating Offshore Wind Projects
  • Fig 81. Capex Estimates for Fixed-Bottom & Floating Wind
  • Fig 82. Capacity-weighted Average Construction Cost by Installation Year
  • Fig 83. EIA vs OPEC Oil Production Forecasts
  • Fig 84. US Total Liquids Supply Outlook
  • Fig 85. US Oil Production
  • Fig 86. 2017 Major LNG Flows
  • Fig 87. Natural Gas Supply by Region
  • Fig 88. WTI and Brent Spot Price by Month
  • Fig 89. Demand/Supply Balance
  • Fig 90. World Liquid Fuels Production and Consumption Balance
  • Fig 91. Brent Futures Trading Rates Q-o-Q
  • Fig 92. Brent Futures Trading Rates Y-o-Y
  • Fig 93. Henry Hub Spot Gas Prices
  • Fig 94. Henry Hub Natural Gas Price and NYMEX Confidence Intervals
  • Fig 95. North American Rotary Count vs Oil Price
  • Fig 96. North American Rotary Count vs Oil Price
  • Fig 97. US Oil Long-term Production Outlook & Price
  • Fig 98. SE Asia Jackups Utilization and Day Rate
  • Fig 99. Drillship Utilization and Day Rate
  • Fig 100. Semisubmersibles Utilization and Day Rate
  • Fig 101. Floater Rates by Quarter
  • Fig 102. Offshore Upstream Investment by Water Depth and Scenario
  • Fig 103. Offshore Upstream Investment by Region and Scenario
  • Fig 104. Offshore Production Facilities in Selected Years by Scenario
  • Fig 105. Upstream Investment by Type

D. Market Forecasts

  • Fig 106. FPS Forecast by Unit Type
  • Fig 107. Capex Forecast by Region and FPS Type
  • Fig 108. Growth of FPS Inventory
  • Fig 109. Forecast by FPS Type and Capex
  • Fig 110. Historical Growth of FPSO Inventory
  • Fig 111. FPSO Awards 2003-2023
  • Fig 112. Forecast of FPSO Awards per Year (2019-2023)
  • Fig 113. FPSO Awards 2019-2023 with Petrobras’ Proportion
  • Fig 114. FPSO Forecast by Hull Type
  • Fig 115. FPSO Processing by Lease Own
  • Fig 116. FPSO Awards by Lease Own
  • Fig 117. FPSO Forecast by Production Capacity
  • Fig 118. Leased FPSO Forecast by Production Capacity
  • Fig 119. FPSO Capex by Hull Type
  • Fig 120. FPSO Awards by Region
  • Fig 121. FPSO Capex by Production Ranges and Hull Type
  • Fig 122. FPSO Orders by Production Ranges and Hull Type
  • Fig 123. FLNG Orders and Deliveries
  • Fig 124. FLNG Orders by Unit Size
  • Fig 125. FLNG Forecast and Capex by Unit Size
  • Fig 126. Historical Growth of FSRU Inventory
  • Fig 127. Historical FSRU Orders
  • Fig 128. FSRU Awards by Lease/Own
  • Fig 129. FSRU Forecast by Unit Size
  • Fig 130. FSRU Forecast and Total Capex by Unit Size
  • Fig 131. Historical FSO Inventory
  • Fig 132. Historical FSO Orders
  • Fig 133. FSO Forecast by Unit Size
  • Fig 134. FSO Forecast and Capex by Unit Size
  • Fig 135. Historical Inventory of Semis
  • Fig 136. Historical Semi Orders
  • Fig 137. Semi Forecast by Unit Size
  • Fig 138. Semi Forecast and Capex by Unit Size
  • Fig 139. Historical Inventory of Spars
  • Fig 140. Historical Spar Orders
  • Fig 141. Spar Forecast by Unit Size
  • Fig 142. Spar Forecast and Capex by Unit Size
  • Fig 143. Historical TLP Inventory
  • Fig 144. Historical TLP Orders
  • Fig 145. TLP Forecast by Unit Size
  • Fig 146. TLP Forecast and Capex by Unit Size
  • Fig 147. Likely Awards in 2019

E. Floating Production Industry Survey

  • Fig 148. Confidence in Business Outlook
  • Fig 149. Expected Length of Downturn
  • Fig 150. Impact of Downturn
  • Fig 151. Cost Savings during the Downturn
  • Fig 152. Activity Levels
  • Fig 153. Largest Obstacle for Awards
  • Fig 154. Capacity Constraints
  • Fig 155. Most Attractive Regions
  • Fig 156. FPS Type with the Highest Growth Opportunities
  • Fig 157. Technologies with the Largest Impact
  • Fig 158. Outlook for Leased, Newbuilt, and Redeployed Units
  • Fig 159. Contractors Participation in Upstream Field Development
  • Fig 160. Sustainability of Offshore Oil and Gas Development
  • Fig 161. Survey Profile -Business
  • Fig 162. Survey Profile - Position

F. Contractor Focus

  • Fig 163. Top Leasing Contractors and Their Fleets
  • Fig 164. Top Leasing Contractors and Their Fleets by Region
  • Fig 165. Bluewater- Contracts by Field Operator
  • Fig 166. Bluewater- Asset Distribution by Region
  • Fig 167. Bluewater- Fleet Status
  • Fig 168. Bumi Armada- Contracts by Field Operator
  • Fig 169. Bumi Armada- Asset Distribution by Region
  • Fig 170. Bumi Armada- Fleet Status
  • Fig 171. BWO- Contracts by Field Operator
  • Fig 172. BWO- Asset Distribution by Region
  • Fig 173. BWO- Fleet Status
  • Fig 174. MISC- Contracts by Field Operator
  • Fig 175. MISC- Asset Distribution by Region
  • Fig 176. MISC- Fleet Status
  • Fig 177. Modec- Contracts by Operator
  • Fig 178. Modec- Asset Distribution by Region
  • Fig 179. Modec- Fleet Status
  • Fig 180. SBM- Contracts by Field Operator
  • Fig 181. SBM- Asset Distribution by Region
  • Fig 182. SBM- Fleet Status
  • Fig 183. Teekay- Contracts by Field Operator
  • Fig 184. Teekay- Asset Distribution by Region
  • Fig 185. Teekay- Fleet Status
  • Fig 186. Yinson- Contracts by Field Operator
  • Fig 187. Yinson- Asset Distribution by Region
  • Fig 188. Yinson- Fleet Status
  • Fig 189. Excelerate- Contracts by Field Operator
  • Fig 190. Excelerate- Asset Distribution by Region
  • Fig 191. Excelerate- Fleet Status
  • Fig 192. Exmar- Contracts by Field Operator
  • Fig 193. Exmar- Asset Distribution by Region
  • Fig 194. Exmar- Fleet Status
  • Fig 195. Golar- Contracts by Operator
  • Fig 196. Golar- Asset Distribution by Region
  • Fig 197. Golar- Fleet Status
  • Fig 198. Hoegh- Contracts by Operator
  • Fig 199. Hoegh- Asset Distribution by Region
  • Fig 200. Hoegh- Fleet Status
  • Fig 201. EPC Contractor Orderbook by Type
  • Fig 202. SEA Yards - Client Distribution
  • Fig 203. Korean Yards - Client Distribution
  • Fig 204. Chinese Yards - Client Distribution
  • Fig 205. SEA Yards - Order Destination
  • Fig 206. Korean Yards - Order Destination
  • Fig 207. Chinese Yards - Order Destination
  • Fig 208. COSCO - Orders by Client
  • Fig 209. COSCO - Order Destination
  • Fig 210. COSCO - Order Backlog
  • Fig 211. CSIC - Orders by Client
  • Fig 212. CSIC- Order Destination
  • Fig 213. CSIC - Order Backlog
  • Fig 214. CSSC - Orders by Client
  • Fig 215. CSSC - Order Destination
  • Fig 216. CSSC - Order Backlog
  • Fig 217. Wison - Orders by Client
  • Fig 218. Wison - Order Destination
  • Fig 219. Wison - Order Backlog
  • Fig 220. Daewoo - Orders by Client
  • Fig 221. Daewoo - Order Destination
  • Fig 222. Daewoo - Order Backlog
  • Fig 223. Hyundai - Orders by Client
  • Fig 224. Hyundai - Order Destination
  • Fig 225. Hyundai - Order Backlog
  • Fig 226. Samsung - Orders by Client
  • Fig 227. Samsung - Order Destination
  • Fig 228. Samsung - Order Backlog
  • Fig 229. Keppel - Orders by Client
  • Fig 230. Keppel - Order Destination
  • Fig 231. Keppel - Order Backlog
  • Fig 232. MMHE - Orders by Client
  • Fig 233. MMHE - Order Destination
  • Fig 234. MMHE - Order Backlog
  • Fig 235. Sembcorp - Orders by Client
  • Fig 236. Sembcorp - Order Destination
  • Fig 237. Sembcorp - Order Backlog

In its 2018-2022 Floating Production Systems Outlook Report, Energy Maritime Associates (EMA), analyzed the activity in 2017, recent industry trends and conducted a sentiment survey to develop a forecast for all Floating Production Systems: FPSO, FLNG, FSRU, TLP, Spar, Semi, and FSO.

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