FPSO Market Recovery Underway and Expected to Reach 2011-2014 Levels

 

NEWS RELEASE – April 30, 2018

                                                                           

In its Q2 2018 Floating Production Systems Report, Energy Maritime Associates (EMA) reviewed the market for Floating Production Systems, including FPSOs, FLNGs, FSRUs, TLPs, Spars, Semis, FSOs, and MOPUs.

Recent Highlights:

  • Orders Continue. After almost two years without an order, 13 FPSOs have been awarded since Q4 2016. Three FPSOs have already been awarded so far in 2018 with another 10 possible orders by year end, bringing the annual total back to levels not seen since 2014.
  • Korea’s Loss is Sembcorp’s Gain. After encountering significant issues with legacy production projects, the big three Korean yards have only been awarded one non-LNG project since 2016. Daewoo and Hyundai seem focused on standardized units, like FSRUs, while Samsung has been awarded ENI’s Coral South FLNG and BP’s Mad Dog 2 Semi. Sembcorp has capitalized on this opportunity and been awarded three contracts: a Production Semi for Shell’s Vito field in the USA, an FPSO hull for Statoil’s Johan Castberg field in Norway, and an FPSO for Energean’s Karish development in Israel. These new units will be built in Sembcorp’s mega-yard facility in Singapore.
  • Majors come to China for the first time. Shell’s Penguins FPSO will be built in China. It is also likely that as BP’s Tortue FPSO and the future FPSOs for ExxonMobil’s Liza field will be built in China.

(c)EMA 2018

 

According to EMA’s Managing Director, David Boggs, “The gradual recovery that began in 2017 has firmly taken hold with FPSO orders expected to reach pre-oil crash levels. In line with our 2018-2022 forecast, there should be at least 10 FPSO awards this year. Oil companies realize that costs in the supply chain are unlikely to reduce further and now is the time to act. After substantial reductions in capacity, industry consolidation, and certain sectors working for below variable cost, it is only a matter of time before margins begin to rise. Drilling rates for harsh environment rigs in the North Sea have moved upwards, but this is not yet the case for Jackups and Drillships in the rest of the world. Moreover, input costs for commodities, such as steel, are also increasing. However, there is still a long way to go before these increasing costs begin to threaten the economics of many deepwater projects. The US Energy Information Agency expects global production from deepwater to grow by 2.5 million b/d over the next 20 years, driven by new developments in areas including Brazil, Mexico, and Guyana.”

For further information visit us at OTC (Booth 4471) or contact:

Yun Xu
Energy Maritime Associates Pte Ltd

Tel: +65.9177.1368 (Singapore)

Tel: +1.202.800.8390 (USA)

fps@energymaritimeassociates.com

 

2018 Q2 FPS Quarterly Report: Table of Contents

I. Current and Planned Floating Production Systems

  • Recent orders and deliveries
  • What’s now being built
  • Trend in order backlog
  • Current fabrication and conversion activity
  • Floater projects planned or under study
  • Floating production database

II. Recent Developments

Floater Prospects in the Appraisal Stage

  • NEW  Boudji (Gabon)
  • NEW  Calypso (Cyprus)
  • NEW  Pechora LNG (Russia)

Floater Prospects in the Planning Stage

  • NEW  Yakaar / Teranga (Senegal)
  • Bonaparte (Petrel-Tern-Frigate) (Australia)
  • Browse (Australia)
  • Crux (Australia)
  • Equus (Australia)
  • Greater Sunrise (East Timor)
  • Scarborough (Australia)
  • Carcara (Brazil)
  • Maromba I (Brazil)
  • Mero (formerly Libra) #4-15 (Brazil)
  • NEW  Ballymore (U.S.)
  • North Platte (U.S.)
  • NEW  Whale (U.S.)
  • Zama (Mexico)
  • Greater Perth (U.K.)
  • NEW  Liza 3 (Payara / Pacora) (Guyana)
  • NEW  Batangas LNG (Philippines)
  • EGAT FSRU (Thailand)
  • NEW  Limbayong (Malaysia)
  • Singa Laut / Kuda Laut (Indonesia)
  • NEW  Sumatra LNG (Indonesia)
  • Ubon (Thailand)
  • NEW  Port Qasim Regas Terminal #4 (Pakistan)

Floaters in the Bidding or Final Design Stage

  • NEW  Anyala / Madu (Nigeria)
  • NEW  Ghana LNG (Ghana)
  • Paradise/Pecan (Ghana)
  • NEW  Tortue West (Ahmeyim, Tortue, Guembeul) (Mauritania)
  • NEW  New South Wales LNG (Australia)
  • Deep Waters Sergipe (Barra / Farfan) (Brazil)
  • Itapu (Brazil)
  • Marlim Revitalization 1 & 2 (Brazil)
  • NEW  Mero (formerly Libra) 3 (Brazil)
  • NEW  Pajaritos LNG (Mexico)
  • Liza 2 (Guyana)
  • NEW  South Sulawesi LNG (Indonesia)

Cancelled Projects

  • Grassy Point LNG (Canada)
  • Egypt LNG Terminal #3 (Egypt)

New Orders

  • Carioca MV30 FPSO (Brazil)
  • Guanabara MV31 FPSO (Brazil)
  • Vito Semi SEMI (US)
  • Johan Castberg FPSO (Norway)
  • Maersk Inspirer MOPU (Norway)
  • Penguins FPSO (U.K.)
  • Karish / Tanin (Israel)
  • Four Rainbow FPSO (Malaysia)
  • Java-Bali 1 FSRU (Indonesia)
  • Madura MDA/MBH FPU BARGE (Indonesia)
  • Golar Freeze FSRU
  • Excelsior FSRU (Bangladesh)

Systems on Order

  • BW Adolo FPSO (Gabon)
  • Egina FPSO (Nigeria)
  • Mekar Bergading FSO (Malaysia)
  • Exmar Speculative FSRU
  • Golar Speculative Conversion FSRU
  • Hoegh Esperanza FSRU (TBD)

Systems Recently Completed

  • Hilli Episeyo FLNG (Cameroon)
  • Kaombo Norte FPSO (Angola)
  • Ugo Ocha FSO (Nigeria)
  • P 74 FPSO (Brazil)
  • Big Foot TLP (WR 29)

Existing Systems

  • Sendje Berge FPSO (Nigeria)
  • Modec Venture 11 FPSO (Australia)
  • Cidade de Niteroi MV18 FPSO (Brazil)
  • Enchova & Pampo Clusters: P-7, P-8, P-12, P-15 SEMIS (Brazil)
  • P 33 FPSO (Brazil)
  • Piranema Spirit FPSO (Brazil)
  • Voyageur Spirit FPSO (U.K.)
  • BW Integrity FSRU (Pakistan)
  • Hoegh Gallant FSRU (Egypt)

Available Systems

  • Deep Producer 1 FPSO
  • Golar Tundra FSRU
  • Petrojarl Cidade de Rio Das Ostras FPSO
  • Sea Good 101 BARGE and Surya Putra Jaya FSO

Recycled Units

  • Navion Saga FSO (Norway)
  • Nataly FSO (Russia)
  • Northern Star FSO (Malaysia)
  • Star Bright FSO (Singapore)

Units Under Repair

  • Ngujima Yin FPSO (Australia)
  • Hai Yang Shi You 111 FPSO (China)

III. UNDERLYING MARKET DRIVERS

  • Global Oil and Gas Demand Drivers
  • Oil and Gas Demand Outlook for 2018/2019
  • Long Term Demand for Oil and Gas
  • Global Oil and Gas Supplies
  • Outlook for 2017/18 Oil Production
  • Deepwater Oil Production
  • Global Oil Price
  • Oil Futures
  • Natural Gas Production and Price
  • LNG Market
  • U.S. Onshore Production and Investment
  • Offshore Drilling
  • Development Costs

IV. COMPANIES AND TECHNOLOGY

  • Petrobras Update
  • Most Likely Awards in Next 12 Months
  • Over 100 Units In Operation > 15 years

Appendix I: Projects in Planning Pipeline

  • Africa
  • Australia
  • Brazil
  • Canada
  • Caribbean
  • Gulf of Mexico
  • Mediterranean
  • North Sea
  • Pacific
  • South America (excluding Brazil)
  • Southeast Asia
  • China
  • Southwest Asia and Middle East

Appendix II: On Order / Under Repair FPS Units

  • BARGE 1 unit
  • FPSO 22 units
  • FLNG 4 units
  • FSRU 22 units
  • SEMI 4 units
  • TLP 1 unit
  • FSO 8 units (5 Oil, 3 LNG)
  • MOPU 4 units
  • Under Repair units

Appendix III: Installed and Available FPS Units

  • FPSO: 172 units
  • BARGE: 9 units
  • FLNG: 3 units
  • FSRU: 19 units
  • LNG REGAS: 4 units
  • SEMI: 38 units
  • SPAR: 20 units
  • TLP: 28 units
  • FSO: 102 units
  • MOPU: 15 units
  • Available units

Appendix IV: Historical Installed FPS Units

 

2018 Q2 FPS Quarterly Report: List of Illustrations

  • Fig 1. Total Installed Units by FPS Type
  • Fig 2. Total FPSOs by Status
  • Fig 3. FPS Units Delivered in 2018
  • Fig 4. Units Awarded by Capex
  • Fig 5. Units Awarded by Quarter
  • Fig 6. FPS Awards in Relation to Oil Price
  • Fig 7. FPS Units Awarded Since Q4 2017
  • Fig 8. Total On Order Units by FPS Type
  • Fig 9. Total On Order Units by FPS Type
  • Fig 10. Map of FPS Units on Order
  • Fig 11. Order Backlog for FPS Units
  • Fig 12. Orderbook 2008-2018
  • Fig 13. Distribution of Units on Order by Yard
  • Fig 14. Projects in Planning Pipeline by Region
  • Fig 15. Projects in Planning Pipeline by Region-LNG&Non-LNG
  • Fig 16. Deepwater and Ultra Deepwater Projects by Region
  • Fig 17. Projects in Bidding and Final Design Stage by Region and Water Depth
  • Fig 18. Projects in Planning Stage by Region and Water Depth
  • Fig 19. Projects in Appraisal Stage by Region and Water Depth
  • Fig 20. Map of Installed FPS Units
  • Fig 21. Table of Production and Storage Floaters by Type and Region
  • Fig 22. FPSO by Status and Region
  • Fig 23. FSO by Status and Region
  • Fig 24. FSRU by Status and Region
  • Fig 25. FLNG by Status and Region
  • Fig 26. SEMI by Status and Region
  • Fig 27. SPAR/TLP by Status and Region
  • Fig 28. Demand Supply Balance
  • Fig 29. Transport Energy Consumption by Fuel Type
  • Fig 30. Liquids Demand Growth
  • Fig 31. Shares of Total Power Generation
  • Fig 32. Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth
  • Fig 33. World Oil Production from oil sands, tight oil and offshore deepwater
  • Fig 34. Deepwater Crude Oil Production
  • Fig 35. WTI and Brent Historical Price by Month
  • Fig 36. Forecast by Goldman and Others
  • Fig 37. Brent Futures -Mar 2018 vs Apr 2017
  • Fig 38. Brent Futures -Mar 2018 vs Nov 2017
  • Fig 39. Historical Spot Gas Price
  • Fig 40. Contracts by Length
  • Fig 41. North American Rotary Rig Count
  • Fig 42. Dayrates and Utilization-Jackups
  • Fig 43. Dayrates and Utilization-Drillships
  • Fig 44. Dayrates and Utilization-Semisubmersibles
  • Fig 45. Comparison of Operating Cost, Capital Cost and Oil Prices
  • Fig 46. Global Oil and Gas Upstream Capital Spending
  • Fig 47. Output Loss from Post-peak Conventional Crude Oil Fields
  • Fig 48. Petrobras Orders by FPSO Owners and Installation Date
  • Fig 49. Likely Awards by Q1 2019
  • Fig 50. Installed FPS Units (>15 years) by Region & Type
  • Fig 51. Installed FPS Units (>15 years) by Owner
  • Fig 52. Installed FPS Units (>15 years) by Date & Ownership
  • Fig 53. FPS Units On Order
  • Fig 54. FPS Units Under Repair