FPSO Market Recovery Underway and Expected to Reach 2011-2014 Levels

 

NEWS RELEASE – April 30, 2018

                                                                           

In its Q2 2018 Floating Production Systems Report, Energy Maritime Associates (EMA) reviewed the market for Floating Production Systems, including FPSOs, FLNGs, FSRUs, TLPs, Spars, Semis, FSOs, and MOPUs.

Recent Highlights:

  • Orders Continue. After almost two years without an order, 13 FPSOs have been awarded since Q4 2016. Three FPSOs have already been awarded so far in 2018 with another 10 possible orders by year end, bringing the annual total back to levels not seen since 2014.
  • Korea’s Loss is Sembcorp’s Gain. After encountering significant issues with legacy production projects, the big three Korean yards have only been awarded one non-LNG project since 2016. Daewoo and Hyundai seem focused on standardized units, like FSRUs, while Samsung has been awarded ENI’s Coral South FLNG and BP’s Mad Dog 2 Semi. Sembcorp has capitalized on this opportunity and been awarded three contracts: a Production Semi for Shell’s Vito field in the USA, an FPSO hull for Statoil’s Johan Castberg field in Norway, and an FPSO for Energean’s Karish development in Israel. These new units will be built in Sembcorp’s mega-yard facility in Singapore.
  • Majors come to China for the first time. Shell’s Penguins FPSO will be built in China. It is also likely that as BP’s Tortue FPSO and the future FPSOs for ExxonMobil’s Liza field will be built in China.

(c)EMA 2018

 

According to EMA’s Managing Director, David Boggs, “The gradual recovery that began in 2017 has firmly taken hold with FPSO orders expected to reach pre-oil crash levels. In line with our 2018-2022 forecast, there should be at least 10 FPSO awards this year. Oil companies realize that costs in the supply chain are unlikely to reduce further and now is the time to act. After substantial reductions in capacity, industry consolidation, and certain sectors working for below variable cost, it is only a matter of time before margins begin to rise. Drilling rates for harsh environment rigs in the North Sea have moved upwards, but this is not yet the case for Jackups and Drillships in the rest of the world. Moreover, input costs for commodities, such as steel, are also increasing. However, there is still a long way to go before these increasing costs begin to threaten the economics of many deepwater projects. The US Energy Information Agency expects global production from deepwater to grow by 2.5 million b/d over the next 20 years, driven by new developments in areas including Brazil, Mexico, and Guyana.”

For further information visit us at OTC (Booth 4471) or contact:

Yun Xu
Energy Maritime Associates Pte Ltd

Tel: +65.9177.1368 (Singapore)

Tel: +1.202.800.8390 (USA)

fps@energymaritimeassociates.com

 

2019 March FPS Quarterly Report: Table of Contents

I. Current and Planned Floating Production Systems

  • Recent orders
  • Recent deliveries
  • What’s now being built
  • Trend in order backlog
  • Composition of Order Backlog
  • Current fabrication and conversion activity
  • Floater projects planned or under study
  • Floating production database

II. Recent Developments

Floater Prospects in the Appraisal Stage   

  • NEW  Brulpadda (South Africa)
  • Tigris Hub (Tiber/Gila/Guadalupe/Gibson) (U.S.)
  • NEW  Frosk / Froskelaar (Norway)

Floater Prospects in the Planning Stage

  • Blk 31 SE – PAJ (Angola)
  • NEW  Lagos State LNG (Nigeria)
  • Nene Marine Phase 2B (Congo)
  • Browse (Calliance / Brecknock, Torosa) (Australia)
  • Carcara (Brazil)
  • Maromba I (Brazil)
  • Bay Du Nord (Canada)
  • Kwispaa LNG (formerly Sarita) (Canada)
  • Trion (Mexico)
  • Galapagos (formerly NW Hutton & Darwin) (U.K.)
  • NEW  Hejre (Denmark)
  • NEW  Liberator (U.K.)
  • NEW  Marigold / Sunflower (U.K.)
  • Rosebank (U.K.)
  • Gehem/Gendalo (Indonesia)
  • Kelidang Cluster (Brunei)
  • NEW  Al Shaheen FSO Replacement (2 units) (Qatar)

Floaters in the Bidding or Final Design Stage  

  • Bonga Southwest/Aparo (Nigeria)
  • Ogaden Basin LNG (Djibouti)
  • Paradise/Pecan (Ghana)
  • SNE – Lupalupa / Baobab (Senegal)
  • Carnarvon Basin (Australia)
  • Equus (Australia)
  • Scarborough (Australia)
  • Victoria LNG (Australia)
  • Gato do Mato (Brazil)
  • Marlim Revitalization 1 & 2 (Brazil)
  • NEW  DR LNG (Dominican Republic)
  • Anchor (U.S.)
  • NEW  Balder X (Jotun A upgrade) (Norway)
  • Cambo Hub (U.K.)
  • NEW  Wilhelmshaven LNG (Germany)
  • Acajutla LNG (El Salvador)
  • Apsara (Cambodia)
  • NEW  Arco Adjuna Replacement (Indonesia)
  • Lac Da Vang (Vietnam)
  • Limbayong (Malaysia)
  • Pasca (Papua New Guinea)
  • Rossukon (Thailand)
  • Hong Kong LNG (Hong Kong)
  • NEW  B-127 Cluster (India)
  • KG-D6 / MJ Field (India)

Non-FPS Developments  

  • Ca Voi Xanh (Vietnam)

New Orders 

  • Abigail-Joseph (ex-Allan) FPSO (Nigeria)
  • Dwiputra FSRU (Mozambique)
  • Feng Huang Zhou FSO (China)

Units Under Repair      

  • Cidade de Sao Mateus FPSO (Brazil)

Systems on Order 

  • Tema FSRU (Ghana)
  • Amoca FPSO (Mexico)
  • Kings Quay (Opti-Ex III) SEMI (GC 389 / 390 / 478)
  • Gimi FLNG (Mauritania)
  • Golar Viking FSRU (Croatia)
  • Liza Destiny FPSO (Guyana)
  • Idemitsu FSO (Vietnam)
  • Ingenium II (Ex-San Jacinto) BARGE (Cambodia)
  • Fast4Ward #2 (Speculative Hull) FPSO (TBD)
  • Gandria FLNG (TBD)

Systems Recently Completed

  • Kaombo Sul FPSO (Angola)
  • La Noumbi FPSO (Congo)
  • P 76 FPSO (Brazil)
  • P 77 FPSO (Brazil)
  • Golar Freeze FSRU (Jamaica)
  • Tango FLNG (Ex-Caribbean FLNG) (Argentina)

Existing Systems 

  • Abo FPSO (Nigeria)
  • BW Adolo FPSO (Gabon)
  • N’Kossa II LPG FSO (Congo)
  • Frade FPSO (Brazil)
  • Piranema Spirit FPSO (Brazil)
  • Polvo FPSO (Brazil)
  • PTSC Lam Son FPSO (Vietnam)
  • Golar Igloo FSRU (Kuwait)

Available Systems  

  • Morpeth TLP (EW 921)
  • Dhirubhai 1 FPSO
  • Firenze FPSO
  • Nganhurra FPSO

Decommissioned Systems  

  • Curlew (ex-Maersk Curlew) FPSO (U.K.)
  • Modec Venture 11 FPSO (TBD)
  • Marine Star FSO (Singapore)

Cancelled Projects  

  • CRD FPSO & TLP (Vietnam)

III. UNDERLYING MARKET DRIVERS     

  • Global Oil and Gas Demand Drivers
  • World Economic Growth
  • Global Oil Price
  • Oil Futures
  • Natural Gas Price
  • U.S. Onshore Production and Investment
  • Offshore Drilling

IV. INDUSTRY ACTIVITY & ANALYSIS 

  • 29 FPS Awards Possible in the Next 12 Months
  • Best FPSO Market in a decade?
  • Rising Redeployments

Appendix I: Projects in Planning Pipeline     

  • Africa
  • Australia
  • Brazil
  • Canada
  • Caribbean
  • Gulf of Mexico
  • Mediterranean
  • North Sea
  • Pacific
  • South America (excluding Brazil)
  • Southeast Asia
  • China
  • Southwest Asia and Middle East

Appendix II: On Order / Under Repair FPS Units

  • BARGE 2 units
  • FPSO 18 units
  • FLNG 4 units
  • FSRU 17 units
  • SEMI 5 units
  • FSO 6 units (3 Oil, 3 LNG)
  • MOPU 4 units
  • Under Repair

Appendix III: Installed and Available FPS Units 

  • FPSO: 175 units
  • BARGE: 9 units
  • FLNG: 4 units
  • FSRU: 23 units
  • LNG REGAS: 5 units
  • SEMI: 39 units
  • SPAR: 21 units
  • TLP: 27 units
  • FSO: 98 units (94 Oil, 4 LNG)
  • MOPU 18 units
  • Available units

Appendix IV: Historical Installed FPS Units  

 

2019 March FPS Quarterly Report: List of Illustrations

Fig 1. Total Installed Units by FPS Type

Fig 2. Total FPSOs by Status

Fig 3. Available Units by Type and Year Idle

Fig 4. Units Awarded by Quarter

Fig 5. Units Awarded by Capex

Fig 6. FPS Units Awarded Since Q4 2018

Fig 7. FPS Awards in Relation to Oil Price

Fig 8. FPS Units Delivered in 2019

Fig 9. FPS Units On Order by Hull Type

Fig 10. FPS Units On Order by Contract Type (Lease/Own)

Fig 11. Map of FPS Units on Order

Fig 12. Order Backlog for FPS Units

Fig 13. Orderbook 2008-2019

Fig 14. Distribution of Units on Order by Yard

Fig 15. Projects in Planning Pipeline by Region

Fig 16. Projects in Planning Pipeline by Region-LNG&Non-LNG

Fig 17. Deepwater and Ultra Deepwater Projects by Region

Fig 18. Projects in Bidding and Final Design Stage by Region and Water Depth

Fig 19. Projects in Planning Stage by Region and Water Depth

Fig 20. Projects in Appraisal Stage by Region and Water Depth

Fig 21. Map of Installed FPS Units

Fig 22. Table of Production and Storage Floaters by Type and Region

Fig 23. FPSO by Status and Region

Fig 24. FSO by Status and Region

Fig 25. FSRU by Status and Region

Fig 26. FLNG by Status and Region

Fig 27. SEMI by Status and Region

Fig 28. SPAR/TLP by Status and Region

Fig 29. WTI and Brent Historical Price by Month

Fig 30. World Liquid Fuels Production & Consumption Balance

Fig 31. Demand and Supply Balance

Fig 32. Brent Futures – Feb 2019 vs Nov 2018

Fig 33. Brent Futures – Feb 2019 vs Mar 2018

Fig 34. Henry Hub Natural Gas Price

Fig 35. Historical Spot Gas Price

Fig 36. North American Land Rig Count

Fig 37. North American Rig Count vs Oil Production

Fig 38. Dayrates and Utilization-Jackups

Fig 39. Dayrates and Utilization-Drillships

Fig 40. Dayrates and Utilization-Semisubmersibles

Fig 41. Likely Awards by March 2020 (FPSOs)

Fig 42. Likely Awards by March 2020 (Non-FPSOs)

Fig 43. Capacity Constraints

Fig 44. Top FPSO Leasing Contractors by Status

Fig 45. Idle FPSOs by Year Available

Fig 46. FPS Units On Order / Under Repair

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