Floating Production Recovery Continues

Total On Order Units by FPS Type

(c) Energy Maritime Associates 2017

NEWS RELEASE – August 2, 2017

In its Q3 2017 Floating Production Systems Report, Energy Maritime Associates (EMA) reviewed the market for Floating Production Systems, including FPSOs, FLNGs, FSRUs, TLPs, Spars, Semis, FSOs, and MOPUs.

What happened so far in 2017:

  • Ten awards to date — Five FSRUs, two FPSOs, one FLNG, one TLP, and one FSO. ENI’s Coral South FLNG is the first non-speculative FLNG order in more than three years. The FSRUs include a redeployment, two newbuilds at Hyundai, a speculative conversion by Golar, and the first FSRU to be built in Indonesia (a 26,000m3 barge at PaxOcean Batam). Repsol Vietnam’s Ca Rang Do development will utilize a wellhead TLP connected to an FPSO. The TLP will be built in Vietnam by PTSC, while Yinson will upgrade the OSX-1 FPSO for redeployment.
  • Seventeen units completed — Seven FPSOs, four FSOs, one FLNG, one FSRU, one Production Barge, one Production Semi, one TLP and one MOPU. This includes the Prelude FLNG, which is the largest floating unit ever constructed measuring 488 meters long and 74 meters wide with a deadweight of 600,000 tons.
  • Four units cancelled – The last three of the eight pre-salt FPSOs for Petrobras (P71, P72, P73) and a speculative FLNG barge ordered by Exmar.
Total On Order Units by FPS Type

(c) Energy Maritime Associates 2017

 

Petrobras Returns to the FPSO Market. After two years without placing any FPSO orders, Petrobras plans for eight additional units to start production in 2020-2021. Tenders are underway for three developments with five more to be launched within the next two years.

Upcoming Awards. EMA has identified 24 possible awards within the next 12 months, including thirteen FPSOs and eight FSRUs. However, some may be delayed due to political and financial difficulties. The most likely upcoming awards have a combined capex of almost $7 billion: Libra & Sepia FPSOs (Brazil), Lancaster FPSO (UK), Johan Castberg FPSO (Norway), and SBM’s Fast4Ward speculative FPSO hull.

Projects in planning pipeline

(c) Energy Maritime Associates 2017

The normal movement of project developments from appraisal to planning to bidding/final design has resumed, with over 230 potential developments being tracked.

New exploration results from Mexico’s Zaza discovery could require an FPSO or FSO.

FLNG projects seem to be regaining momentum with studies underway in Congo, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and the USA. However, these are to monetize existing gas production, rather than to develop new fields

 

According to EMA’s Managing Director, David Boggs,The recovery that began in Q4 2016 has continued, albeit at a gradual pace of one floating production unit per month. This is well below the historical average of 1.5 orders/month, but far better than the past two years. Confidence appears to be retuning as seen by the recent sanction of the Coral South megaproject including award of the first non-speculative FLNG in over three years. In addition, Petrobras is back in the market tendering for three FPSOs, with plans for five more within the next two years. A number of analysts are calling the bottom of the drilling market and many companies are starting to lock-in record low rates for both production and exploration drilling. While oil prices are expected to remain low, there are still a number of viable offshore projects today as a result of lower supply chain costs and revised development plans.”

Details are included in the  FPS Quarterly Report Q3 2017.

2018 Q2 FPS Quarterly Report: Table of Contents

I. Current and Planned Floating Production Systems

  • Recent orders and deliveries
  • What’s now being built
  • Trend in order backlog
  • Current fabrication and conversion activity
  • Floater projects planned or under study
  • Floating production database

II. Recent Developments

Floater Prospects in the Appraisal Stage

  • NEW  Boudji (Gabon)
  • NEW  Calypso (Cyprus)
  • NEW  Pechora LNG (Russia)

Floater Prospects in the Planning Stage

  • NEW  Yakaar / Teranga (Senegal)
  • Bonaparte (Petrel-Tern-Frigate) (Australia)
  • Browse (Australia)
  • Crux (Australia)
  • Equus (Australia)
  • Greater Sunrise (East Timor)
  • Scarborough (Australia)
  • Carcara (Brazil)
  • Maromba I (Brazil)
  • Mero (formerly Libra) #4-15 (Brazil)
  • NEW  Ballymore (U.S.)
  • North Platte (U.S.)
  • NEW  Whale (U.S.)
  • Zama (Mexico)
  • Greater Perth (U.K.)
  • NEW  Liza 3 (Payara / Pacora) (Guyana)
  • NEW  Batangas LNG (Philippines)
  • EGAT FSRU (Thailand)
  • NEW  Limbayong (Malaysia)
  • Singa Laut / Kuda Laut (Indonesia)
  • NEW  Sumatra LNG (Indonesia)
  • Ubon (Thailand)
  • NEW  Port Qasim Regas Terminal #4 (Pakistan)

Floaters in the Bidding or Final Design Stage

  • NEW  Anyala / Madu (Nigeria)
  • NEW  Ghana LNG (Ghana)
  • Paradise/Pecan (Ghana)
  • NEW  Tortue West (Ahmeyim, Tortue, Guembeul) (Mauritania)
  • NEW  New South Wales LNG (Australia)
  • Deep Waters Sergipe (Barra / Farfan) (Brazil)
  • Itapu (Brazil)
  • Marlim Revitalization 1 & 2 (Brazil)
  • NEW  Mero (formerly Libra) 3 (Brazil)
  • NEW  Pajaritos LNG (Mexico)
  • Liza 2 (Guyana)
  • NEW  South Sulawesi LNG (Indonesia)

Cancelled Projects

  • Grassy Point LNG (Canada)
  • Egypt LNG Terminal #3 (Egypt)

New Orders

  • Carioca MV30 FPSO (Brazil)
  • Guanabara MV31 FPSO (Brazil)
  • Vito Semi SEMI (US)
  • Johan Castberg FPSO (Norway)
  • Maersk Inspirer MOPU (Norway)
  • Penguins FPSO (U.K.)
  • Karish / Tanin (Israel)
  • Four Rainbow FPSO (Malaysia)
  • Java-Bali 1 FSRU (Indonesia)
  • Madura MDA/MBH FPU BARGE (Indonesia)
  • Golar Freeze FSRU
  • Excelsior FSRU (Bangladesh)

Systems on Order

  • BW Adolo FPSO (Gabon)
  • Egina FPSO (Nigeria)
  • Mekar Bergading FSO (Malaysia)
  • Exmar Speculative FSRU
  • Golar Speculative Conversion FSRU
  • Hoegh Esperanza FSRU (TBD)

Systems Recently Completed

  • Hilli Episeyo FLNG (Cameroon)
  • Kaombo Norte FPSO (Angola)
  • Ugo Ocha FSO (Nigeria)
  • P 74 FPSO (Brazil)
  • Big Foot TLP (WR 29)

Existing Systems

  • Sendje Berge FPSO (Nigeria)
  • Modec Venture 11 FPSO (Australia)
  • Cidade de Niteroi MV18 FPSO (Brazil)
  • Enchova & Pampo Clusters: P-7, P-8, P-12, P-15 SEMIS (Brazil)
  • P 33 FPSO (Brazil)
  • Piranema Spirit FPSO (Brazil)
  • Voyageur Spirit FPSO (U.K.)
  • BW Integrity FSRU (Pakistan)
  • Hoegh Gallant FSRU (Egypt)

Available Systems

  • Deep Producer 1 FPSO
  • Golar Tundra FSRU
  • Petrojarl Cidade de Rio Das Ostras FPSO
  • Sea Good 101 BARGE and Surya Putra Jaya FSO

Recycled Units

  • Navion Saga FSO (Norway)
  • Nataly FSO (Russia)
  • Northern Star FSO (Malaysia)
  • Star Bright FSO (Singapore)

Units Under Repair

  • Ngujima Yin FPSO (Australia)
  • Hai Yang Shi You 111 FPSO (China)

III. UNDERLYING MARKET DRIVERS

  • Global Oil and Gas Demand Drivers
  • Oil and Gas Demand Outlook for 2018/2019
  • Long Term Demand for Oil and Gas
  • Global Oil and Gas Supplies
  • Outlook for 2017/18 Oil Production
  • Deepwater Oil Production
  • Global Oil Price
  • Oil Futures
  • Natural Gas Production and Price
  • LNG Market
  • U.S. Onshore Production and Investment
  • Offshore Drilling
  • Development Costs

IV. COMPANIES AND TECHNOLOGY

  • Petrobras Update
  • Most Likely Awards in Next 12 Months
  • Over 100 Units In Operation > 15 years

Appendix I: Projects in Planning Pipeline

  • Africa
  • Australia
  • Brazil
  • Canada
  • Caribbean
  • Gulf of Mexico
  • Mediterranean
  • North Sea
  • Pacific
  • South America (excluding Brazil)
  • Southeast Asia
  • China
  • Southwest Asia and Middle East

Appendix II: On Order / Under Repair FPS Units

  • BARGE 1 unit
  • FPSO 22 units
  • FLNG 4 units
  • FSRU 22 units
  • SEMI 4 units
  • TLP 1 unit
  • FSO 8 units (5 Oil, 3 LNG)
  • MOPU 4 units
  • Under Repair units

Appendix III: Installed and Available FPS Units

  • FPSO: 172 units
  • BARGE: 9 units
  • FLNG: 3 units
  • FSRU: 19 units
  • LNG REGAS: 4 units
  • SEMI: 38 units
  • SPAR: 20 units
  • TLP: 28 units
  • FSO: 102 units
  • MOPU: 15 units
  • Available units

Appendix IV: Historical Installed FPS Units

 

2018 Q2 FPS Quarterly Report: List of Illustrations

  • Fig 1. Total Installed Units by FPS Type
  • Fig 2. Total FPSOs by Status
  • Fig 3. FPS Units Delivered in 2018
  • Fig 4. Units Awarded by Capex
  • Fig 5. Units Awarded by Quarter
  • Fig 6. FPS Awards in Relation to Oil Price
  • Fig 7. FPS Units Awarded Since Q4 2017
  • Fig 8. Total On Order Units by FPS Type
  • Fig 9. Total On Order Units by FPS Type
  • Fig 10. Map of FPS Units on Order
  • Fig 11. Order Backlog for FPS Units
  • Fig 12. Orderbook 2008-2018
  • Fig 13. Distribution of Units on Order by Yard
  • Fig 14. Projects in Planning Pipeline by Region
  • Fig 15. Projects in Planning Pipeline by Region-LNG&Non-LNG
  • Fig 16. Deepwater and Ultra Deepwater Projects by Region
  • Fig 17. Projects in Bidding and Final Design Stage by Region and Water Depth
  • Fig 18. Projects in Planning Stage by Region and Water Depth
  • Fig 19. Projects in Appraisal Stage by Region and Water Depth
  • Fig 20. Map of Installed FPS Units
  • Fig 21. Table of Production and Storage Floaters by Type and Region
  • Fig 22. FPSO by Status and Region
  • Fig 23. FSO by Status and Region
  • Fig 24. FSRU by Status and Region
  • Fig 25. FLNG by Status and Region
  • Fig 26. SEMI by Status and Region
  • Fig 27. SPAR/TLP by Status and Region
  • Fig 28. Demand Supply Balance
  • Fig 29. Transport Energy Consumption by Fuel Type
  • Fig 30. Liquids Demand Growth
  • Fig 31. Shares of Total Power Generation
  • Fig 32. Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth
  • Fig 33. World Oil Production from oil sands, tight oil and offshore deepwater
  • Fig 34. Deepwater Crude Oil Production
  • Fig 35. WTI and Brent Historical Price by Month
  • Fig 36. Forecast by Goldman and Others
  • Fig 37. Brent Futures -Mar 2018 vs Apr 2017
  • Fig 38. Brent Futures -Mar 2018 vs Nov 2017
  • Fig 39. Historical Spot Gas Price
  • Fig 40. Contracts by Length
  • Fig 41. North American Rotary Rig Count
  • Fig 42. Dayrates and Utilization-Jackups
  • Fig 43. Dayrates and Utilization-Drillships
  • Fig 44. Dayrates and Utilization-Semisubmersibles
  • Fig 45. Comparison of Operating Cost, Capital Cost and Oil Prices
  • Fig 46. Global Oil and Gas Upstream Capital Spending
  • Fig 47. Output Loss from Post-peak Conventional Crude Oil Fields
  • Fig 48. Petrobras Orders by FPSO Owners and Installation Date
  • Fig 49. Likely Awards by Q1 2019
  • Fig 50. Installed FPS Units (>15 years) by Region & Type
  • Fig 51. Installed FPS Units (>15 years) by Owner
  • Fig 52. Installed FPS Units (>15 years) by Date & Ownership
  • Fig 53. FPS Units On Order
  • Fig 54. FPS Units Under Repair