Floating Production: New Cycle Underway

 

NEWS RELEASE – September 21, 2018

                                                                           

In its Q4 2018 Floating Production Systems Report, Energy Maritime Associates (EMA) reviewed the market for Floating Production Systems, including FPSOs, FLNGs, FSRUs, TLPs, Spars, Semis, FSOs, and MOPUs.

 

Recent Highlights:

  • FPSO orders highest in four years. Eight FPSOs have been awarded so far in 2018, including six newbuilt units (five in china one in Singapore) and two redeployments of idle units. This is the most FPSO orders since oil price crashed in 2014.
  • More Awards on the Way. EMA has identified 31 projects most likely to be sanctioned in the next 12 months. This includes 17 FPSOs, 5 FSRUs, 4 FSOs, 2 Production Semis, 2 MOPUs, and 1 FLNG. A few of these will be awarded by year end, with most being approved in 2019.
  • SBM – Back in Brazil. In Q3 2018, SBM settled its legacy issues with Brazilian authorities and agreed to payments worth USD 342 million. After a four year hiatus, SBM is now able to compete for new Petrobras contracts. Its Fast4Ward design is well suited for the large pre-salt FPSOs, such as the current Mero 2 tender.
  • HHI Closes Offshore Yard. Due to lack of work, Hyundai shut its dedicated offshore facility in August 2018 after seven years in operation. HHI has not won an FPS order since 2014, other than FSRUs, which are built in the main shipbuilding yard.

 

(c)EMA 2018

According to EMA’s Managing Director, David Boggs, “Oil prices have rebounded over 100% from their lowest levels, while offshore costs have hardly moved. As a result, many offshore developments are now very competitive, if not more attractive, than onshore shale fields, with breakevens as low as $30/bbl. We see this as the start of a new cycle for the industry, with re-set pricing and a growing oil price, similar to the period from 2004/5. If oil prices remain stable, there is tremendous opportunity for new floating production projects over at least the next two years. While there have been substantial industry reductions and consolidation, there is still sufficient industry capacity, particularly in the subsea and drilling sectors through 2020.”

For further information contact:

Yun Xu
Energy Maritime Associates Pte Ltd

Tel: +65.9177.1368 (Singapore)

Tel: +1.202.800.8390 (USA)

fps@energymaritimeassociates.com

 

2018 Q4 FPS Quarterly Report: Table of Contents

I. Current and Planned Floating Production Systems

Recent orders
Recent deliveries
What’s now being built
Trend in order backlog
Composition of Order Backlog
Current fabrication and conversion activity
Floater projects planned or under study
Floating production database

II. Recent Developments
Floater Prospects in the Appraisal Stage

NEW UD-1 (Cluster 3) (India)

Floater Prospects in the Planning Stage

Cameia (Angola)
NEW OML 18 (Nigeria)
NEW Tortue FLNG #2-4 (Mauritania)
NEW Adelaide LNG (Australia)
Doradao / Roc / (Australia)
Flemish Pass (Mizzen / Harpoon / Bay du Nord) (Newfoundland)
NEW Western LNG (Canada)
NEW Liza 4 / Liza 5 (Guyana)
NEW Kelidang Cluster (Brunei)

Floaters in the Bidding or Final Design Stage

Anyala / Madu (Nigeria)
Etinde (Cameroon)
NEW Mystras Replacement (Nigeria)
Paradise/Pecan (Ghana)
New South Wales LNG (Australia)
Atlanta/Olivia (Brazil)
Buzios V (Brazil)
Marlim Revitalization 1 & 2 (Brazil)
Amoca, Mizton, Tecoalli (Mexico)
NEW Baja Sur LNG (Mexico)
NEW Pajaritos LNG (Mexico)
Liza 3 (Payara / Pacora) (Guyana)
Sea Lion (Falklands)
NEW Nam Du / U Minh (Vietnam)
Lufeng Redevelopment (12-3/14-4/15-1/22-1) (China)
NEW Mina Al-Ahmadi (Kuwait)
Ratna (India)
Non-Sanctioned FPS Developments
Boudji & Ivela (Gabon)
Fortuna FLNG #2 (Equatorial Guinea)
Crux (Australia)
Zama (Mexico)
Pechora LNG (Russia)
New Orders
Liza 2 FPSO (Guyana)
Surya Putra Jaya FPSO (Indonesia)
Excel FSO (LNG) (Russia)
BW GDF Suez Paris FSRU (Speculative)

Systems on Order

Gandria FLNG (Equatorial Guinea)
Golar Freeze FSRU (Jamaica)
Aoka Mizu FPSO (U.K.)
Hoegh Speculative (Hull 2909) FSRU
Systems Recently Completed
BW Adolo FPSO (Gabon)
Egina FPSO (Nigeria)
P 69 FPSO (Brazil)
P 75 FPSO (Brazil)
Barakuda Natuna FSO (Indonesia)
NEW Scarlet Trader FSO (Indonesia)
Mekar Bergading FSO (Malaysia)
Bratasena FSO (Myanmar)
Hai Yang Shi You 111 FPSO (China)
Bahrain Spirit FSO (LNG) (Bahrain)

Existing Systems

Montara Venture FPSO (Australia)
Pyrenees Venture FPSO (Australia)
Armada Kraken FPSO (U.K.)
Curlew (ex-Maersk Curlew) FPSO (U.K.)
FPF 1 SEMI (U.K.)
Petrojarl Banff FPSO (U.K.)
Voyageur Spirit FPSO (U.K.)
Jotun A FPSO (Norway)
Armada TGT 1 FPSO (Vietnam)
Rubicon Intrepid FPSO (Philippines)
Exquisite FSRU (Pakistan)

Available Systems

Armada Perdana FPSO (Nigeria)
Modec Venture 11 FPSO (Australia)
Petrojarl Cidade de Rio Das Ostras FPSO (Brazil)
Deep Panuke MOPU (Canada)

Decommissioned Systems

PTAP-One FPSO (Indonesia)
Intan FSO (Indonesia)
Abu FSO (Malaysia)
Amity Star FSO (Malaysia)
Concord M FSO (Malaysia)
Yetagun FSO (Myanmar)
SKS Douro FSO (West Africa)
Units under Repair
Ngujima Yin FPSO (Australia)

Cancelled Orders

Maran Speculative #2 FSRU

III. Underlying Market Drivers

Global Oil and Gas Demand Drivers
Oil and Gas Outlook for 2018/2019
Long Term Demand for Oil and Gas
Growing LNG Demand
Global Oil Price
Oil Futures
Natural Gas Production and Price
U.S. Onshore Activity
Offshore Drilling
E&P Development Costs

IV. Industry Activity & Analysis

Most Likely Awards in Next 12 Months
SBM – Back in Brazil
Hyundai Closes Offshore Yard

Appendix I: Projects in Planning Pipeline

Africa
Australia
Brazil
Canada
Caribbean
Gulf of Mexico
Mediterranean
North Sea
Pacific
South America (excluding Brazil)
Southeast Asia
China
Southwest Asia and Middle East

Appendix II: On Order / Under Repair FPS Units

BARGE 1 unit
FPSO 20 units
FLNG 4 units
FSRU 19 units
SEMI 3 units
TLP 1 unit
FSO 4 units (1 Oil, 3 LNG)
MOPU 4 units
Units Under Repair

Appendix III: Installed and Available FPS Units

FPSO: 175 units
BARGE: 9 units
FLNG: 3 units
FSRU: 22 units
LNG REGAS: 3 units
SEMI: 39 units
SPAR: 21 units
TLP: 28 units
FSO: 101 units (96 Oil, 5 LNG)
MOPU: 14 units
Available – 45 vessels

Appendix IV: Historical Installed FPS Units

 

2018 Q4 FPS Quarterly Report: List of Illustrations

    • Fig 1. Total Installed Units by FPS Type
      Fig 2. Total FPSOs by Status
      Fig 3 Units Awarded by Quarter
      Fig 4. FPS Units Awarded Since Q1 2018
      Fig 5. Units Awarded by Capex
      Fig 6. FPS Awards in Relation to Oil Price
      Fig 7. FPS Units Delivered in 2018
      Fig 8. FPS Units On Order by Hull Type
      Fig 9. FPS Units On Order by Contract Type (Lease/Own)
      Fig 10. Map of FPS Units on Order
      Fig 11. Order Backlog for FPS Units
      Fig 12. Orderbook 2008-2018
      Fig 13. Distribution of Units on Order by Yard
      Fig 14. Projects in Planning Pipeline by Region
      Fig 15. Projects in Planning Pipeline by Region-LNG&Non-LNG
      Fig 16. Deepwater and Ultra Deepwater Projects by Region
      Fig 17. Projects in Bidding and Final Design Stage by Region and Water Depth
      Fig 18. Projects in Planning Stage by Region and Water Depth
      Fig 19. Projects in Appraisal Stage by Region and Water Depth
      Fig 20. Map of Installed FPS Units
      Fig 21. Table of Production and Storage Floaters by Type and Region
      Fig 22. FPSO by Status and Region
      Fig 23. FSO by Status and Region
      Fig 24. FSRU by Status and Region
      Fig 25. FLNG by Status and Region
      Fig 26. SEMI by Status and Region
      Fig 27. SPAR/TLP by Status and Region
      Fig 28. World Liquid Fuels Production & Consumption Balance
      Fig 29. Annual Change in World Liquid Fuels Consumption
      Fig 30. World Energy Consumption by Energy Source
      Fig 31. Global Supply by Source
      Fig 32. LNG Imports by Region
      Fig 33. Global Gas Demand Growth by Sector
      Fig 34. Deliveries to FSRUs
      Fig 35. WTI and Brent Historical Price by Month
      Fig 36. Brent Futures – Aug 2018 vs May 2018
      Fig 37. Brent Futures – Aug 2018 vs Sep 2017
      Fig 38. Historical Spot Gas Price
      Fig 39. North American Land Rig Count
      Fig 40. Dayrates and Utilization-Jackups
      Fig 41. Dayrates and Utilization-Drillships
      Fig 42. Dayrates and Utilization-Semisubmersibles
      Fig 43. Comparison of Operating Cost, Capital Cost and Oil Price Indices
      Fig 44. Likely Awards in Next 12 Months (FPSO)
      Fig 45. Likely Awards in Next 12 Months (Non-FPSO)
      Fig 46. Petrobras Orders 2013-2019 by FPSO Owner and Installation Date
      Fig 47. HHI Offshore Yard Layout
      Fig 48. Hyundai Heavy Industries Track Record
      Fig 49. FPS Units On Order / Under Repair

Meet EMA at Topsides, Platforms & Hulls | Feb 5-7 2019 | Find Out More