SINGAPORE – In its 2020-2024 Floating Production Systems Outlook Report, Energy Maritime Associates (EMA), analyzed the activity in 2019, recent industry trends and conducted a sentiment survey to develop a forecast for all types of Floating Production Systems including FPSO, FLNG, FSRU, TLP, Spar, Semi, and FSO.

    Highlights:
  • Orders Continue. 19 contracts for Floating Production units were awarded in 2019, including 13 FPSOs, 3 FSRUs, 2 Production Semis, and 1 MOPU. By comparison, there were 11 FPSO orders last year and only 7 in 2017.
  • Busy Times for Leading Contractors. There are 25 FPSOs currently on order. Two contractors are responsible for almost half of all the backlog: Modec is executing seven projects, while SBM has five units in progress, including two Fast4Ward hulls ordered on speculation.
  • Let the Good Times Roll. In EMA’s seventh annual sentiment survey, 75% of respondents expected the Floating Production Sector upturn to last at least two more years, with 44% believing it was even more sustainable and could last three years or longer.

Figure 1. Chart of historical FPS awards vs. Average WTI Price, (c)EMA 2020

    What does the future hold?
  • Up to 175 Orders. Between 81-175 Floating Production Systems are expected over the next five years with a mid-case forecast of $99 billion to be spent on 125 units. The outlook has been adjusted slightly from last year, with a handful more FPSOs expected in the high-case scenarios. FPSOs remain the largest segment with over 40% of orders and 3/4th of capital expenditure. Close to $30 billion is expected to be spent on FPS projects in Brazil, driven by massive, deepwater FPSOs.
  • Rise of the Redeployment – Four existing units were awarded new contracts this year (FPSOs Jotun A, Allan, MTC Ledang, as well as MOL FSRU Challenger). We expect this trend to continue, with redeployed units, particularly FPSOs, accounting for up to 25% of future awards.
  • 45 Floating Production Systems are currently available – 25 FPSOs, 6 Production Semis, 6 FSOs, 5 MOPUs, 4 FSRUs, 2 FSOs, 1 Spars, 1 TLP, and 1 Production Barge. This is down five from the peak in 2017 due to redeployments and recycling of older FPSOs. The number of idle units is expected to remain high, with another 62 that could possibly come available within the next two years.

According to EMA’s Managing Director, David Boggs, “The floating production market experienced a strong 2019, with the highest level of FPSO awards in seven years. Brazil is firmly back, with five orders this year and is expected to account for 1/3rd of total spending over the next five years. Confidence has returned, particularly for the leading contractors, which are managing record orderbooks. SBM’s speculative Fast4Ward program has been a success with contracts secured for its first three FPSO hulls and orders placed for two more at the end of 2019. Oil companies now see attractive opportunities in offshore, particularly deepwater Brazil, Gulf of Mexico, and Australia. EMA has identified 30 projects that could be sanctioned within the next year and now the question is how will they be executed.”

About Energy Maritime Associates

The Floating Production Systems Report is a must read for anyone requiring trustworthy analysis of the FPSO sector to effect better decision making, assess business risk, and provide insight into project alternatives.

Since 1996, EMA has been providing independent, expert analysis of the FPSO market with an unbiased view. We pride ourselves on the accuracy of information provided built through an extensive network of industry contacts, and our depth of knowledge in floating production. Trusted by more than 200 clients worldwide, EMA serves the entire FPSO market including E&P companies, service providers, capital investment firms, and asset and facility owners.

For further information contact:

Yun Xu | Senior Analyst

Energy Maritime Associates Pte Ltd

Tel: +86.137.7442.5032

yun.xu@energymaritimeassociates.com

2020 FPS Outlook Report: Table of Contents

  • A. Introduction to Floating Production Systems (FPS)

    Brief History of the Offshore Industry

    FPS Life Cycle

    FPS Unit Types

    Floating Production, Storage and Offloading Units (FPSOs)

    Production Semisubmersibles (Semis)

    Tension Leg Platforms (TLPs)

    Spar

    Floating Liquefied Natural Gas Units (FLNGs)

    Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRUs)

    Floating Storage and Offloading Vessels (FSOs)

    Mobile Offshore Production Units (MOPUs)

    B. Current Market Status

    What Happened in 2019?

    Project Awards

    Project Deliveries

    Decommissioned Units

    What Does the Market Look Like as of Dec 2019?

    On Order

    Trend in Order Backlog

    Composition of Order Backlog

    Available Floating Production Systems

    FPS Units Likely to Cease Operations in 2020-2021

    Projects in the Planning Pipeline

    List of Leading FPS Operators and Owners

    Top FPS Operators (Planning Pipeline)

    Top FPS Owners

    Top FPS Operators (Installed Units)

    Top FPSO Owners

    Top FPSO Owners by Water Depth (Installed Units)

    Top FSO Owners

    Top SPAR Owners

    Top Production Semi Owners

    Top FLNG Owners

    Top FSRU Owners

    Top TLP Owners

    C. Underlying Market Drivers

    Global Oil and Gas Demand Drivers

    Assessment of 2019 and Outlook for 2020

    Long Term Energy Demand

    Long Term Oil Demand

    Transportation and Petrochemical Growth Drives Oil Demand

    Long Term Gas Demand

    Renewables— Offshore Wind

    Global Oil and Gas Supplies

    Long Term Oil Production

    Outlook for Gas Production

    Global Oil Price

    Oil Futures

    Natural Gas Price

    U.S. Onshore Production and Investment

    Offshore Drilling

    E&P Development and Investment

    D. Market Forecasts

    Summary of 2020-2024 Forecast

    Forecast Scenarios

    FPSO Forecast

    FLNG Forecast

    FSRU forecast

    FSO forecast

    Production SEMI forecast

    Production SPAR forecast

    TLP forecast

    Forecast Appendix

    E. Floating Production Industry Survey

    F. Contractor Focus

    Leasing Contractors

    Bluewater

    Bumi Armada

    BW Offshore (BWO)

    MISC

    MODEC

    SBM

    Teekay

    Yinson

    FSRU/FLNG Companies (Excelerate, Exmar, Golar, Hoegh)

    Excelerate

    Exmar

    Golar LNG

    Hoegh LNG

    EPC Contractors

    Chinese Yards

    Cosco Shipping Heavy Industry (CSHI)

    China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC)

    China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC)

    Wison Offshore & Marine

    Korean Yards

    Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME)

    Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI)

    Samsung Heavy Industries (SHI)

    Southeast Asian Yards

    Keppel

    Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering (MMHE)

    Sembcorp Marine (Jurong and Sembawang)

    2020 FPS Outlook Report: List of Illustrations

    • A. Introduction to Floating Production Systems (FPS)

      Fig 1. FPS Units > 1,500m by Year Installed

      Fig 2. Installed FPS Units by Maximum Water Depth Over Time

      Fig 3. Regional Distribution of Installed Units 1991-2000

      Fig 4. Regional Distribution of Installed Units 2001-2010

      Fig 5. Regional Distribution of Installed Units 2011-2019

      Fig 6. FPS Awards in Relation to Oil Price

      Fig 7. FPS Life Cycle Schematic

      Fig 8. FPSO Schematic

      Fig 9. Mooring Systems Comparison

      Fig 10. Production Semi Schematic

      Fig 11. TLP Schematic

      Fig 12. SPAR Schematic

      Fig 13. FLNG Schematic

      Fig 14. FSRU Schematic

      Fig 15 FSO Schematic

      Fig 16. MOPU Schematic

      B. Current Market Status

      Fig 17. Awarded Units by Type

      Fig 18. Units Awarded in 2018 and 2019 by FPS Type

      Fig 19. Units Awarded in 2018 and 2019 by Capex

      Fig 20. Awarded Units 2016-2019 by Quarter

      Fig 21. Awarded Units 2016-2019 by Capex

      Fig 22. Distribution of Units Awarded in 2019 by Type

      Fig 23. Details for Units Awarded in 2019

      Fig 24. Units Awarded in 2019 by Capital Cost

      Fig 25. Units Awarded in 2019 by Yard

      Fig 26. Units Awarded in 2019 by Operator Category

      Fig 27. Units Awarded by Lease/Own

      Fig 28. FPSO Awards by Region

      Fig 29. FSRU Awards by Region

      Fig 30. FSO Awards by Region

      Fig 31. SEMI Awards by Region

      Fig 32. FPS Awards by Capex

      Fig 33. Units Delivered in 2019 by Region and Unit Type

      Fig 34. Details of Non-LNG Units Delivered in 2019

      Fig 35. Details of LNG Units Delivered in 2019

      Fig 36. Units Decommissioned in 2019

      Fig 37. Total Installed Units by Type

      Fig 38. Global Distribution of Installed Units by Type

      Fig 39. Installed Units by FPS Type and Region

      Fig 40. Table of Production and Storage Floaters by Type and Region

      Fig 41. FPS Units On Order by Type and Region

      Fig 42. FPS Units On Order/Under Repair by Name and Type

      Fig 43. Distribution of Units On Order by Destination

      Fig 44. Distribution of Units On Order by Yard

      Fig 45. FPS Order Book 1997-2019

      Fig 46. FPS Order Book by Unit Type

      Fig 47. Available FPS Units by Year of Lay-Up and Type

      Fig 48. Available FPS Units by Year of Lay-Up, Type and Status

      Fig 49. Possible Available FPSOs 2020-2021

      Fig 50. Possible Available Non-FPSO Units 2020-2021

      Fig 51. Projects in Planning Process

      Fig 52. Projects in Planning Process by Region

      Fig 53. Projects in Planning Process by Region and Water Depth

      Fig 54. Projects in Bidding/Final Design Stage by Region and Water Depth

      Fig 55. Projects in Planning Stage by Region and Water Depth

      Fig 56. Projects in Appraisal Stage by Region and Water Depth

      Fig 57. Top Operators by Projects in Planning Process

      Fig 58. Top FPS Unit Owners

      Fig 59. Top Operators by Units Leased or Owned

      Fig 60. Top FPSO Owners

      Fig 61. Top FPSO Owners by Water Depth

      Fig 62. Top FSO Owners

      Fig 63. Top Spar Owners

      Fig 64. Top Semi Owners

      Fig 65. Top FLNG Owners

      Fig 66. Top FSRU Owners

      Fig 67. Top TLP Owners

      C. Underlying Market Drivers

      Fig 68. Growth in Primary Energy Demand by Region

      Fig 69. Global Energy Demand Growth

      Fig 70. Global Energy Demand by Sector

      Fig 71. Average Annual Oil Demand Growth

      Fig 72. Global Oil Demand by Sector 2018-2040

      Fig 73. Liquids Demand

      Fig 74. Sectoral Oil Demand Growth

      Fig 75. LNG Imports by Region

      Fig 76. Shares in Long-Distance Gas Trade 2017 vs 2040

      Fig 77. Growth in Primary Energy Demand by Type

      Fig 78. Typologies Under Development

      Fig 79. Cost Breakdown for Fixed-Bottom & Floating Offshore Wind Projects

      Fig 80. Capex Estimates for Fixed-Bottom & Floating Wind

      Fig 81. EIA vs OPEC Oil Production Forecasts

      Fig 82. US Total Liquids Supply Outlook

      Fig 83. US Oil Production

      Fig 84. Natural Gas Supply by Region

      Fig 85. 2017 Major LNG Flows

      Fig 86. WTI and Brent Spot Price by Month

      Fig 87. World Liquid Fuels Production and Consumption Balance

      Fig 88. Brent Futures Trading Rates Q-o-Q

      Fig 89. Brent Futures Trading Rates Y-o-Y

      Fig 90. Henry Hub Spot Gas Prices

      Fig 91. Henry Hub Natural Gas Price and NYMEX Confidence Intervals

      Fig 92. North American Rotary Count vs Oil Price

      Fig 93. North American Rotary Count vs Oil Price

      Fig 94. Jackups Fleet Supply and Utilization

      Fig 95. Drillships Fleet Supply and Utilization

      Fig 96. Semisubmersibles Fleet Supply and Utilization

      Fig 97. Offshore Upstream Investment by Water Depth and Scenario

      Fig 98. Offshore Upstream Investment by Region and Scenario

      Fig 99. Offshore Production Facilities in Selected Years by Scenario

      Fig 100. Upstream Investment by Type

      D. Market Forecasts

      Fig 101. FPS Forecast by Unit Type

      Fig 102. Capex Forecast by Region and FPS Type

      Fig 103. Growth of FPS Inventory

      Fig 104. Forecast by FPS Type and Capex

      Fig 105. Historical Growth of FPSO Inventory

      Fig 106. FPSO Awards 2003-2024

      Fig 107. Forecast of FPSO Awards per Year (2020-2024)

      Fig 108. FPSO Awards 2020-2024 with Petrobras’ Proportion

      Fig 109. FPSO Forecast by Hull Type

      Fig 110. FPSO Processing by Lease Own

      Fig 111. FPSO Awards by Lease Own

      Fig 112. FPSO Forecast by Production Capacity

      Fig 113. Leased FPSO Forecast by Production Capacity

      Fig 114. FPSO Capex by Hull Type

      Fig 115. FPSO Awards by Region

      Fig 116. FPSO Capex by Production Ranges and Hull Type

      Fig 117. FPSO Orders by Production Ranges and Hull Type

      Fig 118. FLNG Orders and Deliveries

      Fig 119. FLNG Orders by Unit Size

      Fig 120. FLNG Forecast and Capex by Unit Size

      Fig 121. Historical Growth of FSRU Inventory

      Fig 122. Historical FSRU Orders

      Fig 123. FSRU Awards by Lease/Own

      Fig 124. FSRU Forecast by Unit Size

      Fig 125. FSRU Forecast and Total Capex by Unit Size

      Fig 126. Historical FSO Inventory

      Fig 127. Historical FSO Orders

      Fig 128. FSO Forecast by Unit Size

      Fig 129. FSO Forecast and Capex by Unit Size

      Fig 130. Historical Inventory of Semis

      Fig 131. Historical Semi Orders

      Fig 132. Semi Forecast by Unit Size

      Fig 133. Semi Forecast and Capex by Unit Size

      Fig 134. Historical Inventory of Spars

      Fig 135. Historical Spar Orders

      Fig 136. Spar Forecast by Unit Size

      Fig 137. Spar Forecast and Capex by Unit Size

      Fig 138. Historical TLP Inventory

      Fig 139. Historical TLP Orders

      Fig 140. TLP Forecast by Unit Size

      Fig 141. TLP Forecast and Capex by Unit Size

      Fig 142. Likely Awards in 2020

      E. Floating Production Industry Survey

      Fig 143. Confidence in Business Outlook

      Fig 144. Expected Length of Upturn

      Fig 145. Impact of Upturn

      Fig 146. Cost Inflation Expected in next 12 Months

      Fig 147. Activity Levels

      Fig 148. Largest Obstacle for Awards

      Fig 149. Capacity Constraints

      Fig 150. Most Attractive Regions

      Fig 151. FPS Type with the Highest Growth Opportunities

      Fig 152. Technologies with the Largest Impact

      Fig 153. Outlook for Leased, Newbuilt, and Redeployed Units

      Fig 154. Expectations on Projects to be Completed

      Fig 155. Survey Profile -Business

      Fig 156. Survey Profile - Position

      F. Contractor Focus

      Fig 157. Top Leasing Contractors and Their Fleets

      Fig 158. Top Leasing Contractors and Their Fleets by Region

      Fig 159. Bluewater- Contracts by Field Operator

      Fig 160. Bluewater- Asset Distribution by Region

      Fig 161. Bluewater- Fleet Status

      Fig 162. Bumi Armada- Contracts by Field Operator

      Fig 163. Bumi Armada- Asset Distribution by Region

      Fig 164. Bumi Armada- Fleet Status

      Fig 165. BWO- Contracts by Field Operator

      Fig 166. BWO- Asset Distribution by Region

      Fig 167. BWO- Fleet Status

      Fig 168. MISC- Contracts by Field Operator

      Fig 169. MISC- Asset Distribution by Region

      Fig 170. MISC- Fleet Status

      Fig 171. Modec- Contracts by Operator

      Fig 172. Modec- Asset Distribution by Region

      Fig 173. Modec- Fleet Status

      Fig 174. SBM- Contracts by Field Operator

      Fig 175. SBM- Asset Distribution by Region

      Fig 176. SBM- Fleet Status

      Fig 177. Teekay- Contracts by Field Operator

      Fig 178. Teekay- Asset Distribution by Region

      Fig 179. Teekay- Fleet Status

      Fig 180. Yinson- Contracts by Field Operator

      Fig 181. Yinson- Asset Distribution by Region

      Fig 182. Yinson- Fleet Status

      Fig 183. Excelerate- Contracts by Field Operator

      Fig 184. Excelerate- Asset Distribution by Region

      Fig 185. Excelerate- Fleet Status

      Fig 186. Exmar- Contracts by Field Operator

      Fig 187. Exmar- Asset Distribution by Region

      Fig 188. Exmar- Fleet Status

      Fig 189. Golar- Contracts by Operator

      Fig 190. Golar- Asset Distribution by Region

      Fig 191. Golar- Fleet Status

      Fig 192. Hoegh- Contracts by Operator

      Fig 193. Hoegh- Asset Distribution by Region

      Fig 194. Hoegh- Fleet Status

      Fig 195. EPC Contractor Orderbook by Type

      Fig 196. SEA Yards - Client Distribution

      Fig 197. Korean Yards - Client Distribution

      Fig 198. Chinese Yards - Client Distribution

      Fig 199. SEA Yards - Order Destination

      Fig 200. Korean Yards - Order Destination

      Fig 201. Chinese Yards - Order Destination

      Fig 202. COSCO - Orders by Client

      Fig 203. COSCO - Order Destination

      Fig 204. COSCO - Order Backlog

      Fig 205. CSIC - Orders by Client

      Fig 206. CSIC- Order Destination

      Fig 207. CSIC - Order Backlog

      Fig 208. CSSC - Orders by Client

      Fig 209. CSSC - Order Destination

      Fig 210. CSSC - Order Backlog

      Fig 211. Wison - Orders by Client

      Fig 212. Wison - Order Destination

      Fig 213. Wison - Order Backlog

      Fig 214. Daewoo - Orders by Client

      Fig 215. Daewoo - Order Destination

      Fig 216. Daewoo - Order Backlog

      Fig 217. Hyundai - Orders by Client

      Fig 218. Hyundai - Order Destination

      Fig 219. Hyundai - Order Backlog

      Fig 220. Samsung - Orders by Client

      Fig 221. Samsung - Order Destination

      Fig 222. Samsung - Order Backlog

      Fig 223. Keppel - Orders by Client

      Fig 224. Keppel - Order Destination

      Fig 225. Keppel - Order Backlog

      Fig 226. MMHE - Orders by Client

      Fig 227. MMHE - Order Destination

      Fig 228. MMHE - Order Backlog

      Fig 229. Sembcorp - Orders by Client

      Fig 230. Sembcorp - Order Destination

      Fig 231. Sembcorp - Order Backlog

In its 2020-2024 Floating Production Systems Outlook Report, Energy Maritime Associates (EMA), analyzed the activity in 2019, recent industry trends and conducted a sentiment survey to develop a forecast for all types of Floating Production Systems including FPSO, FLNG, FSRU, TLP, Spar, Semi, and FSO.

FPS Market Webcast hosted by Offshore Magazine Click Here to Watch